Where it breaks. Applying the percentage to revenue instead of profit. Then: missing the 110% step-up when last year's AGI was over $150,000, treating this planning share as the amount the IRS requires, and forgetting state estimates.
Worth knowing. Federal only, 2026. Self-employment tax is 15.3% on 92.35% of net profit: 12.4% Social Security up to the $184,500 wage base (less any W-2 wages of your own, SSA) and 2.9% Medicare, plus 0.9% Additional Medicare Tax on earnings above $200,000 single or $250,000 joint: a threshold that wages, yours and a joint-filing spouse's, use up first (IRS Form 8959 instructions). Income tax uses the 2026 brackets and standard deduction ($16,100 single, $32,200 joint; IRS IR-2025-103) and the §199A deduction, including its wage-and-property limit above $201,750 single or $403,500 joint and the new $400 minimum (Rev. Proc. 2025-32; IRS Pub. 505). The set-aside is the extra federal tax your profit adds on top of the household's other income, so a spouse's salary is taxed on its own and not charged to the business. Not modeled: credits, state tax, itemized deductions, the 3.8% net investment income tax, lower rates on qualified dividends and capital gains, self-employed health insurance and retirement contributions (both of which lower QBI), and Additional Medicare Tax an employer withholds. For required payments, the safe harbor is the smaller of 90% of this year's tax or 100% of last year's (110% if last year's AGI was over $150,000), and no estimates are required if you will owe under $1,000 after withholding (IRS Pub. 505).
Watch. Under the IRS safe-harbor rule, paying 25% of the safe-harbor amount by each due date (April 15, June 15 and September 15, 2026 and January 15, 2027) avoids the underpayment penalty however your income falls during the year, even if most of it arrives in the fourth quarter. Confirm your amounts with your CPA. The periods are uneven (January–March, April–May, June–August, September–December), which matters only if you pay less than that early in the year: the annualized income installment method (Form 2210, Schedule AI) then lets smaller early payments count when the income genuinely came late.
Sources. IRS Publication 505 (2026): Tax Withholding and Estimated Tax; IRS Rev. Proc. 2025-32: 2026 brackets, standard deduction and §199A thresholds; SSA: 2026 Social Security wage base