Where it breaks. Applying the percentage to revenue instead of net profit. After that: missing the 110% safe-harbor step-up when prior-year AGI was over $150,000, which is the single most common penalty cause for a growing business, and forgetting state estimates entirely.
Worth knowing. Federal only, 2026, pass-through owner. Uses the verified constants: SE 15.3% on 92.35% of net profit, Social Security wage base $184,500 (SSA), standard deduction $16,100 single / $32,200 MFJ and the IR-2025-103 brackets, §199A threshold $201,750 / $403,500 (Rev. Proc. 2025-32). Safe harbor is 90% of the current year or 100% of the prior year — 110% if prior-year AGI exceeded $150,000. The familiar 'save 25–30%' rule is federal-only and breaks in any income-tax state. Run at these constants, a pass-through owner with $100K–$250K of profit and no other income typically lands between 24% and 29% federal, but the answer moves several points with filing status, spouse income and whether §199A survives.
Watch. The four estimate periods are not equal in length — April 15 covers three months, June 15 two, September 15 three and January 15 four. A business that earns most of its money in Q4 and pays four equal installments still gets penalized for the earlier quarters. If your income is lumpy, ask your preparer about the annualized income installment method on Form 2210 Schedule AI.